Ron Amundson’s Political Blog

an ex-Republicans View of the World, and his campaign efforts

Ten men in a bar, rewritten to encompass todays economy

October 19th, 2008

A friend sent me the 10 men in a bar story to show how progressive taxes as well as increases are damaging to the economy. Being I strongly disagree with such a model, I rewrote it and sent it back. :)

Increasing taxes on the rich?? Here is a twist on that to think about.

  • Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for
    all ten comes to $100. The ten men were a most diverse crowd, ranging from fast food employees to a wealthy banker.
  • Each man paid $10 for his part of the beer tab.
  • The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the govt threw them a curve.
  • “Since we had to bail out Wall street, and 50 or so other big business’, plus tax revenues are dropping” they said, “we’re going to increase your taxes by 10%’”
  • Since the wealthy banker had most of his income in offshore defferment and other tax avoidance products, the tax increase had only a miniscule effect on him. His discretionary income remained the same.
  • The 3 factory managers were hit pretty hard, their taxes costs them an extra $1000, but they still had significant discretionary income, so they continued to come to the bar.
  • The 4 factory assemblers were hit pretty hard too, their taxes cost them an extra $300, and thus, they had to cut back coming to the bar.
  • The 2 folks working at a fast food joint cost them an extra $100, their employer had to cut back their hours, as fewer people were eating out, and the costs of everything else went up, thus they could no longer come to the bar at all.
  • The bar owner had a significant loss, as 30% of his business evaporated, and his costs went through the ceiling and thus he had to close the bar.

All were very unhappy, even the banker, being his fav bar was closed, his investments were in the tank, and the GNP took a dive. The govt was not pleased, and had to reduce their expenses, resulting in less police protection, less road maintenance, and reduced educational oppurtunities.

Where as if the tax increases were progressive in nature:

  • The investment banker got hit hard when some of his tax avoidance strategies evaporated. His discretionary income dropped some, but he could still go to the bar.
  • The factory managers got hit hard too, their taxes costs them an extra $1000, but they still had significant discretionary income, so they continued to come to the bar.
  • The 4 assemblers ended up having a $100 hit on their income, thus they ended up coming to the bar a bit less, but it was still doable.
  • The fast food workers had no tax increase, although with prices going up, they had to watch their money a bit more, so they cut back a little.
  • The bar owners costs went up a bit, but nearly 90% of his revenue remained. Thus he was able to stay open, although with the price increase folks had to cut back a bit on their bar tab for a bit.

Over time, efficiencies and productivity went up across the board, every one got a effective wage increase as more people had more money to spend due to progressive taxes. The wealthy banker did even better, as he had some of his money tied up in the bar and the fast food joint, and found he was making significantly more money overall, even though he paid more in taxes. just as the plant managers did. The factory workers and fast food joint guys had more money to spend, even though the prices went up a bit. All were happy, the GNP increased, as did gross tax revenue for the govt.

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Viewing 2 Comments

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    This is ridiculous. Your joke doesn't work in either situation because neither exists nor will exist under either candidate. The original DOES work because it is fairly accurate. Do you know any fast food workers that pay tax? NO. Under any proposed scenario will their taxes increase? No! The current tax rates aren't truly indicative of what people pay because of exemptions. That's why the bottom 40% don't pay any income tax at all.
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    Everyone pays taxes, excluding those who have the ability to use avoidance strategies to the max. Even the fast food worker, who is eligible for the EIC ends up paying the income taxes of others plus multipliers through the inflated prices on US based goods and services (not so on offshore goods, but thats another matter entirely). Tax policy at the bottom of the economic scale doesn't lend itself to sound bites, just as foreign deferment doesn't at the high end. With everything so buried, it makes for a real mess to unravel the true flow of money. Case in point, the rich man will be really soaked via the bailout bill with its changes in offshore deferment (which no one talks about it seems). In many ways, a change in the marginal rates would likely have been a lot less costly to the top 1%, than the deferment changes... on the other hand, changes to deferment tax policy are a somewhat silent way to raise govt revenue by many billions. Don't get me wrong, I always thought offshore deferment was a bad thing, just having it submarined in another bill does not seem a very good approach.

    As far as proposed scenarios and tax increases, likely you are correct, although I must admit McCain's health care proposal and its associated tax scheme will raise taxes on any user of the health care system. The question then is whether those in the lowest economic strata would be able to pay or not.

    I also agree re: exemptions, the whole marginal tax rate structure ends up being a facade... 30 years ago, when the top marginal rate was at 70%, we didn't have folks rushing to move offshore, but we did have a lot more creative accounting and tax avoidance strategies... I don't see what the fuss is about changing the marginal rates... even if the top marginal rate were to go to 50% as it was in 85, there wont be a mass exodus of wealth going offshore esp with the deferment provisions now in effect, albeit there would be a multitude of unintended consequences.

    A couple references... marginal tax rates by year, and tax demographic data.
    http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates.php
    http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/250.html
 
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